Alert

President Donald Trump’s recent executive orders have the potential to significantly affect the agricultural sector in the United States.

Trump’s executive orders carry significant implications for the agricultural sector, ranging from trade tariffs and energy policies to immigration enforcement. Farmers and agricultural businesses will need to navigate these changes carefully, as they could affect everything from market access and labor availability to regulatory compliance and water resources. The full impact of these orders will unfold over time, influenced by legal challenges and market responses.

Below is an analysis of recent executive orders and their possible implications for farmers and the agricultural industry.

Imposing Additional Tariffs

Possible Effects

Canada and Mexico are major trading partners for US agricultural products. There has been swift retaliatory tariffs from all three countries, making US commodities more expensive abroad. There have already been reports of Canadian grocery chains canceling orders from U.S. suppliers and replacing it from other sources.

US farmers, particularly those exporting fresh produce to Canada and Mexico and tree nuts to China, could face significant challenges as their products become less competitive in these markets. Canada and Mexico represent two significant export markets for U.S. fresh produce, and there is a high potential for long-term impacts to U.S. growers.

There’s some uncertainty regarding potential government reimbursements for farmers affected by these tariffs. Recently, the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, has indicated the USDA will have a plan ready for farmers who are impacted if it is needed. While the programs rolled out to specialty crop producers over the last several years have benefited some growers, it’s unlikely USDA assistance programs will make up the gap of long-term trade tariffs.

Declaring a National Energy Emergency

This executive order allows for the year-round sale of E15 gasoline, which is a blend of 15% ethanol.

Possible Effects

The order could increase demand for American corn, sorghum, and other ethanol-derived commodities. However, the actual impact may be limited without substantial investment from gasoline dealers to retrofit service stations for E15 blending.

Unleashing American Energy

This order aims to terminate the Green New Deal and electric vehicle mandates while promoting fossil fuel production and reviewing LNG export applications.

Possible Effects

While this order doesn’t directly impact agricultural production, it may affect farmers who have diversified their income through renewable energy projects like solar and wind. The focus on fossil fuels could render these renewable projects economically unfeasible, reducing income potential for those farmers.

Putting People Over Fish

This order seeks to allocate more water from Northern California to the Central Valley and Southern California, potentially overriding environmental concerns related to the Delta Smelt.

Possible Effects

By prioritizing agricultural water needs, this order could benefit farmers in the Central Valley. However, it’s likely to face legal challenges that could delay its implementation.

Regulatory Freeze Pending Review

This executive order freezes any pending federal regulations until they can be reviewed by the appropriate agency heads.

Possible Effects

Several regulations that could impact American farmers are currently under review, including guidance from the Treasury Department and USDA regarding Section 45Z. This freeze may delay the implementation of benefits that could support farmers.

Securing Our Borders

This order mandates the construction of physical barriers along the United States–Mexico border and includes measures for stricter immigration enforcement.

Possible Effects

This order could have the most profound impact on agricultural production, as farmers heavily rely on immigrant labor. Increased enforcement and uncertainty around legal status may lead to labor shortages, affecting crop production.

While some farmers may turn to the H-2A visa program for seasonal labor, this program can be costly and may not meet the year-round labor needs of certain sectors, such as dairy farming.

We’re Here to Help

To learn more about the potential impact of executive orders on your agricultural business and how you can prepare, contact your Moss Adams professional.

Additional Resources

• Agribusiness Practice
• Food & Beverage Practice